News
UTEcon has released ”SEP Update”, a report of U.S. economic forecasts using the FRB/US model.
■What is the “SEP Update”?
Every other FOMC meeting, the Fed publishes the “Summary of Economic Projections (SEP),” illustrating the FOMC members’ forecasts of key macroeconomic variables over the next three years. The SEP is an important piece of information on the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and attracts a great deal of attention from market participants.
The SEP contains projections of five variables—GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, core inflation, and the FF rate—in annual frequency over the next three years and their long-run values. However, some market participants might be interested in projections of other macroeconomic and financial variables and quarterly fluctuations in these variables. Our “SEP Update” provides projections consistent with the SEP of a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables, using a publicly available version of the FRB/US model, a macroeconomic model used frequently by the FRB in policy analysis.
■Executive Summary
・In the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the inflation forecast through mid-2023 has been revised significantly upward, and the FF rate is expected to rise to near 3.5% in 2022Q4.
・According to the FRB/US model, the 10-year long-term interest rate will rise to near 4% in 2023Q1.
・With higher paths of interest rates, the exchange rate appreciates more quickly, and the path of household net worth is lower than in the previous update.
・As for real economic variables, higher paths of interest rates push down residential and business-fixed investment growth over the next two years.
■Note
・This document will be available for a fee beginning in the fall.
・We also offer consulting services on this product and related areas.
・We can also customize our analysis:
-Projections of interest rates for various maturities
-Projections based on alternative modeling assumptions, such as alternative monetary policy rules and alternative long-run assumptions, etc.
-Analysis related to risks and uncertainty.
For more information, please contact us at info@utecon.net