{"id":4580,"date":"2022-07-01T11:00:42","date_gmt":"2022-07-01T02:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/utecon-has-released-sep-update-a-report-of-u-s-economic-forecasts-using-the-frb-us-model\/"},"modified":"2022-07-01T11:00:42","modified_gmt":"2022-07-01T02:00:42","slug":"utecon-has-released-sep-update-a-report-of-u-s-economic-forecasts-using-the-frb-us-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/utecon-has-released-sep-update-a-report-of-u-s-economic-forecasts-using-the-frb-us-model\/","title":{"rendered":"UTEcon has released \u201dSEP Update\u201d, a report of U.S. economic forecasts using the FRB\/US model."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/h4>\n

<\/h4>\n

\u25a0What is the \u201cSEP Update\u201d?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Every other FOMC meeting, the Fed publishes the \u201cSummary of Economic Projections (SEP),\u201d illustrating the FOMC members\u2019 forecasts of key macroeconomic variables over the next three years. The SEP is an important piece of information on the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and attracts a great deal of attention from market participants.<\/p>\n

The SEP contains projections of five variables\u2014GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, core inflation, and the FF rate\u2014in annual frequency over the next three years and their long-run values. However, some market participants might be interested in projections of other macroeconomic and financial variables and quarterly fluctuations in these variables. Our \u201cSEP Update\u201d provides projections consistent with the SEP of a variety of macroeconomic and financial variables, using a publicly available version of the FRB\/US model, a macroeconomic model used frequently by the FRB in policy analysis.<\/p>\n

\u25a0Executive Summary<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\u30fbIn the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the inflation forecast through mid-2023 has been revised significantly upward, and the FF rate is expected to rise to near 3.5% in 2022Q4.
\n\u30fbAccording to the FRB\/US model, the 10-year long-term interest rate will rise to near 4% in 2023Q1.
\n\u30fbWith higher paths of interest rates, the exchange rate appreciates more quickly, and the path of household net worth is lower than in the previous update.
\n\u30fbAs for real economic variables, higher paths of interest rates push down residential and business-fixed investment growth over the next two years.<\/p>\n

\u25a0Note<\/h4>\n

\u30fbThis document will be available for a fee beginning in the fall.
\n\u30fbWe also offer consulting services on this product and related areas.
\n\u30fbWe can also customize our analysis:
\n-Projections of interest rates for various maturities
\n-Projections based on alternative modeling assumptions, such as alternative monetary policy rules and alternative long-run assumptions, etc.
\n-Analysis related to risks and uncertainty.<\/p>\n

For more information, please contact us at\u00a0info@utecon.net<\/a><\/p>\n

\u25a0Report
\nTo download the full report, please click here.<\/a><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u25a0What is the \u201cSEP Update\u201d? Every other FOMC meeting, the Fed publishes the \u201cSummary of Economic Projections (SEP),\u201d illustrating the FOMC members\u2019 forecasts of key macroeconomic variables over the next three years. The SEP is an important piece of information on the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and attracts a great deal of attention from market participants. The SEP contains projections of five variables\u2014GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, core inflation, and the FF rate\u2014in annual frequency over the next three years and their long-run values. However, some market participants might be interested in projections of other macroeconomic and financial variables and quarterly fluctuations in these variables. Our \u201cSEP Update\u201d provides\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[142,133,138,134,118,135,140,128,141,129,125,130,132,131,143,139,137,127,144,126,145,136],"class_list":["post-4580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-ff-en","tag-frb-en","tag-gdp-en","tag-sep-en","tag-utecon-en","tag--en"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4580\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/utecon.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}